Apple is gaining as the industry shrinks

21/10 20:30 - Apple is gaining as the industry shrinks
It’s all relative, but if you want to scope out the likely shape of the tech device industry in five years’ time, you have to think of the likely shape of the replacement cycle, and right now it seems to be shifting toward Apple.  That’s going to become more important to tech purchasing as the years roll by and is also likely why you’ll see other manufacturers become even more competitive as they try to stop the tide. It is open to question if they will be able to do so, given that even five years ago Apple still seemed far less dominant, which is no longer the case. Shrink when you’re winning If you look at the devices that are being sold, you’ll see one key thing: In the face of memory and component cost-driven price hikes, sales of PCs and smartphones are falling fast. Apple isn’t immune to this macroeconomic trend, so it is also seeing decline, but the relative rate of this decline is less steep, meaning the company is growing its market share even as the industry shrinks. Gartner says the Mac share of the PC market rose to 10.5% in Q3, up from 8.8% a year earlier, even as Mac sales fell 7.1%. The figures vary by analyst (IDC has Mac share at 9.5%, Omdia at 11.7%), but all three show a gain.  In smartphones we’re seeing something similar, with Counterpoint Research giving Apple a new record 22% of global smartphone sales in Q3. While it’s true that Apple is achieving lower unit sales in both categories, its decline is far beneath the industry average. When everyone’s prices rise Apple has had to raise prices across all its devices but has been able to lean into the sheer scale of its market to help dilute the impact. Lacking Apple’s scale, smaller vendors have been unable to follow suit. This has led to PC and smartphone manufacturers raising prices on their devices to such an extent that Apple now seems to be a good value option.  Counterpoint Research Director Tarun Pathak caught the mood: “Apple is still gaining new users across categories, and it will become increasingly difficult for competitors to make an Apple user switch to their operating system,” he said. Shoppers who can still afford to buy can’t help but see that while Apple’s products cost more, everybody else has raised prices to similar levels. It means Apple is being judged differently. When everything costs roughly the same, the value it offers looks different.  That thousand-dollar smartphone you always wanted but couldn’t justify purchasing seems more viable now that the brand you opted for instead just raised prices to the same level. Today’s buyers, tomorrow’s upgraders Now think about what this means 3-5 years from now. It means a growing chunk of PC or smartphone owners will be looking to upgrade their Mac or iPhone.  So far at least, people tend to stick with Apple once they arrive there. Consumer Intelligence Research Partners puts iPhone loyalty at 87% among recent purchasers, a three-year high, which suggests that this year’s buyers are likely to stick with it once they need to upgrade. Satisfaction points the same way: Apple ties Samsung for the top spot in the American Customer Satisfaction Index’s 2026 personal computer satisfaction ranking, with a score of 81, even as industry-wide satisfaction fell 4%.  The longer the PC and smartphone market decline continues, the greater the impact of this trend will become. If Apple manages to keep declining at a slower rate in comparison to other ecosystems, its relative market share will continue to grow.  That share is likely to sustain itself into subsequent purchasing cycles. Apple also benefits from the first generation of M1 Mac owners, who are only now reaching the point when an upgrade seems necessary. (Don’t forget that between 2020 and 2022, the success of Apple silicon drove Apple’s PC market share from 6.6% in 2020 to 10.8% in 2022, setting a new trend line.) Why IT should pay attention That’s more than a curious observation for Apple fans. It’s also something that should matter more to enterprise tech, as it suggests that the need for investment in device management and Apple hardware is going to accelerate through the downturn. It hints that support for these platforms will become a business necessity; that if your teams continue refusing to support Apple platforms and aren’t prepared to change that, then you may soon be searching for different IT teams. Now please subscribe to my daily, human-curated Apple-related news headline feed at The Core, or follow me on BlueSky, LinkedIn, or Mastodon. ...